Inflation Expectations and Their Role in Eurosystem Forecasting

Discussion of Fuhrer , “ The Role of Expectations in Inflation Dynamics ”

Rational expectations are at the heart of the DSGE models maintained by central banks. A key equation which governs the evolution of prices in those models is the New Keynesian Phillips (NKPC) curve, in which today‟s rate of inflation is linked to expected future inflation. Expected future inflation is in turn modeled using rational expectations, which operationally means that forecast errors a...

Inflation persistence, inflation expectations, and monetary policy in China

a r t i c l e i n f o This paper constructs a quarterly series of GDP deflator inflation for China from 1979 to 2009 and tests for a structural break with an unknown change point in the dynamic inflation process. Empirical results suggest a significant structural change in inflation persistence. Employing a counterfactual simulation method, we show that the structural change is primarily attrib...

Anchoring Expectations of Inflation

This paper studies existence and uniqueness of equilibrium in a monetary model in which fiscal policy is Ricardian. The innovation of the paper is to model agents’ expectations as endogenous probabilities which are determined in equilibrium. Since economies with a Ricardian fiscal policy typically exhibit indeterminacy of equilibrium when the monetary policy instrument is the short-term interes...

Disagreement about Inflation Expectations

Analyzing 50 years of inflation expectations data from several sources, we document substantial disagreement among both consumers and professional economists about expected future inflation. Moreover, this disagreement shows substantial variation through time, moving with inflation, the absolute value of the change in inflation, and relative price variability. We argue that a satisfactory model...

Reasons of Undershooting the Inflation Target in the Czech Republic: the Role of Inflation Expectations